The thought of writing this piece came yesterday’s night while trying to ruminate over the outcome of the just concluded Kabba-Bunu/Ijumu Federal Constituency’s Election and using the same as a base for the possible outcome of Ijumu State Assembly’s Election coming up this weekend.
The 2023 Election for Kabba-Bunu/Ijumu Federal Constituency has come and gone but the memories lives forever. With all sense of modesty, there is no gain saying the outcome was not expected. As a loyal APC member, I had no option than to work for my party but without fear or favour of any form, some of us had the premonition of the outcome because of many factors that preceded the election. Some of these will be highlighted below to, at least, serve as learning points/guidance for APC Ijumu and most especially, Hon Omotayo Ishaya (File fobinrin) the APC flagbear for the forthcoming State Assembly’s Election. She need to re-tighten her belt very well because Esin Iwájú tó jìn síkòtò ñse lókó èyí tónbò léyìn lógbón.
These reasons include but not limited to the following:
Over Confidence and Too Much Reliance on Power of Incumbency – The APC Kabba-Bunu/Ijumu Federal Constituency and the flagbear, Prince Mathew Kolawole had too much confidence, relying on power of incumbency at the State’s level, believing that the election will be a walk over. Unfortunately, the ADC candidate explored more windows of opportunities to mobilize votes from everyone irrespective of their political affiliations.
The Dramatic Emergence of Prince Mathew Kolawole During The Party’s Primary Election – Even though, some of us who were directly involved in Charvid’s Campaign and were also disenfranchised as delegates during the primary may have forgotten and let go due to party’s loyalty and internal democracy, but a reasonable number of APC members were still bittered and had to show their greviances during the general election by voting for opposition.
Double Status of Some Party’s Members – Some people are APC and PDP members in the day but are full fledged ADC members in the night. These people are more in APC due to the 2019 election when a faction moved out of APC to contest under ADC. The status, stamina and potency of this category of members can’t be understimated because they still meet and have plans separate from that of APC, part of which was openinly expressed in the House of Representatives Election. They voted for Arch Salman in place of their party’s candidates. This may still happen during the States Assembly’s Election
During the House of Representatives Election, both the PDP and APC’s candidates were from Kabba-Bunu LGA while Arch Salman, the ADC candidate had no opposition from Ijumu LGA. So, while the 3 Candidates divided Kabba-Bunu LGA votes, Arch Salman got more from his LGA, Ijumu than the others which gave him the needed victory.. File fobinrin should also not forget that she first has the candidate of ADC to contend with in Ijumu Arin before the other parts of the LGA.
Hon Leke Abejide’s Effect – It is crystal clear to everyone of us that Hon Leke Abejide’s exceptional performance has opened our eyes to the true meaning of the dividends of democracy and this has given ADC an upgraded and enviable status in Kogi State. So, people believes that Arch Salman will ostensibly follow Hon Leke Abejide’s foot steps. Meanwhile, we should also not forget that the magic wand of Hon Abejide, which is the payment of WEAC/JAMB Fees of his constituents has recently been extended to Kabba-Bunu/Ijumu Federal Constituency.
2023 Governorship Election – The Kabba-Bunu/Ijumu Federal Constituency Election was a litmus test for the forthcoming Governorship Election in the State. How? Among the individuals that have obtained the Governorship Form is Hon Faleke who has his ardent supporters cut across PDP, APC and mostly in ADC. Meanwhile, we all know that Gov Yahaya Bello’s administration will conduct the APC’s Primary which simply means the Governor’s preferred candidate will invariably be the party’s flagbear and this may not favour Hon Faleke. So, ADC may be the next option for Hon Faleke having been linked with the introduction and existence of the party in Kogi State. So, ADC is systematically preparing ground for the 2023 Governorship Election. The party has technically shown us this through the House of Rep Election and may want to repeat same in the State Assembly’s Election.
Above and other not here mentioned are enough reasons why APC Ijumu and the flagbear, Hon Omotayo Ishaya (File fobinrin) needs to re-strategize by;
1) Making sure that the interest of APC members with double party’s status are taken care of before the election. I mean members that are APC in the day but ADC in the night (Funny but true)
2) Everyone from Ijumu is mobilized irrespective of party’s affiliation. Let take advantage of the few days left to do this
3) Lest I forget, PDP in the State and by extension, in Ijumu LGA may look weak but the party’s flagbear in Ijumu is a force not to be taken for granted. The status of File fobinrin as a woman may be the needed sentiment to look at in this regard. So, let’s mobilize more of women and the youth because these two categories of voters always gives the winning numbers.
Above is my singular opinion and I hope it is fair enough and not in anyway biased because I am only trying to predict into to the future using past political happenings. Anyway, our future lies in our hands. So, doing the right thing at the right time and place always guarantee positive outcomes.
Written by Musa Olumayowa Yakubu, A Progressive Member of APC Ijumu
